Why Do People Blow on Dice? Believing Skill Is Involved
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People act as though they can influence outcomes that are entirely random, and they do so more strongly when a situation contains features that resemble a skilled task. The tendency is measurable, widespread and occasionally useful.
What the effect is
The tendency is to expect a personal success probability higher than the objective odds justify, in situations governed by chance. It was named and demonstrated experimentally by Ellen Langer in the 1970s, in a series of studies showing that people asked to bet on a purely random outcome bet more, and valued their position more highly, when the situation included features normally associated with skill. Participants allowed to choose their own lottery ticket demanded several times more to sell it than those given one at random, even though the draw was identical. Participants competing against an awkward and nervous opponent in a pure guessing game bet more than those facing a confident one.
What triggers it
Specific features of a situation reliably increase the effect:
- •Making a choice, however irrelevant the choice is to the outcome
- •Familiarity with the materials or the setting
- •Competition, particularly against somebody who appears incompetent
- •Active involvement, such as throwing rather than watching
- •Practice beforehand, even at something with no skill component
- •An early run of successes, which is read as evidence of ability
Where it costs money
Gambling is where this does the most obvious damage, and commercial design exploits it deliberately. Machines that let a player stop a spinning reel, choose a line or press a button at a chosen moment add no control over the outcome at all and increase the sense of involvement measurably. Games that mix a genuine skill element with a dominant chance element encourage players to attribute results to the skill part. Near misses are engineered to occur more often than chance would produce, and they read as evidence of improving performance. Choosing one's own numbers in a lottery is understood in the industry to increase participation. Regulators in several countries have restricted some of these features on precisely this reasoning.
The rituals people build around it
Behaviour that reflects this belief is elaborate, widespread and remarkably consistent across cultures. Blowing on dice, throwing harder for a high number and softer for a low one, and shaking longer when a difficult number is wanted have all been documented experimentally rather than merely observed. Sports players maintain sequences of preparation that must be performed in order, and interrupting them causes genuine distress. Lucky clothing and objects are kept and used in situations where the outcome matters and the person has no influence over it. Examinations, job interviews and medical results attract the same behaviour. Studies have found that such rituals measurably improve performance in tasks that do involve skill, apparently by reducing anxiety, which gives the habit a real basis even where the belief behind it is wrong.
When it is useful
The tendency is not simply an error to be corrected, and the evidence on that is genuinely interesting. Believing one has influence over events is associated with persistence, with attempting difficult things and with better outcomes in situations where effort actually does matter, and a person who accurately recognises how little they control tends to attempt less. Research on depression has found that depressed participants judge their control over random outcomes more accurately than non-depressed ones, a result that has been debated for decades and remains at least partly supported, which suggests the ordinary state is a mild overestimate rather than accuracy. The practical question is therefore matching the belief to situations where it is warranted rather than removing it.
The takeaway
People expect a higher chance of success than the odds justify in random situations, particularly when a choice, familiarity, competition or active involvement is present. Choosing a lottery ticket made participants value it several times more highly than an identical one given to them. Gambling machines add irrelevant choices deliberately. The tendency supports persistence where effort does matter, and depressed participants judge such situations more accurately.